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CREF NYS Energy

Next Program:


Monday, Feb. 15, 7:00pm (Early start to allow for some added discussion of last month's program)

College of St. Rose, Albany (see below for specific location and directions)

7pm 

Our Contracting Oil Supply, How Serious, How Soon - Howard Hart and Bill Reinhardt - continued discussion of last month's talks 

7:30pm

The Importance of Conservation

Dave Borton

David will give priority in his presentation to the important role available to us as individuals, even above that of communities and governments, and how conservation can actually expand both our well being, and also that of the generations to follow.

As is the case for all CREF talks, all interested people are invited.  Bring your friends!


Room Location:

Conference Rooms A and B on the second floor of the Campus Center  

Directions:

Enter the CSR Campus Center on 420 Western Avenue and go to the middle of the building.    Take the elevator or stairs to the second floor.  The conference rooms are just to the right as you exit the elevator or stairs.

This program is co-sponsored by CREF (Capital Region Energy Forum), St. Rose College, and CEG (Center for Economic Growth)


 

The Capital Region Energy Forum (New York State)

The Capital Region Energy Forum is a group of concerned citizens in the greater capital region of New York State, including engineers, scientists, educators, and students, who have come together to develop a common understanding of:

  • The key energy issues facing the U.S. and New York State, within a worldwide context.

  • The urgency of each and the time frame in which each must be addressed.

  • The environmental, economic, and security challenges presented by each major energy resource and feasible approaches to meeting these challenges.

  • The technical approaches, including conservation, that can contribute to an enduring and stable balance between energy supply and demand.

To be added to the CREF Mailing list membership:
membership email address:

Membership is free, but donations are appreciated.
Tax deductable donations to support CREF - St. Rose Educational Activities

Mailing address: College of St. Rose
  Att: Dr. Richard  Thompson
  432 Western Avenue
  Albany,New York 12203-1490


Make checks payable to The College of St. Rose., and indicate 
“CREF” on the memo line.

Past Program - January 11, 2010 - College of St. Rose

Can Technology Overcome the Upcoming Deficit in Oil Production?

Dr. Howard Hart, A More Optimistic View of Peak Oil

There are some who claim that we are rapidly running out of recoverable oil, and thus production of oil will decrease well below demand in the next few months or years, certainly within a decade.  The effects on our economy and society will be drastic.  There are others, usually closer to the oil industry, who are more optimistic and state that there is enough recoverable oil to last through the 21st century at an average real price not very alternate URRsdifferent from that at the beginning of 2010.  (Examples of what production might be like for these different levels of recoverable oil are illustrated in the figure on the left.) These optimistic statements require that the use of oil is prudent and that appropriate investment in discovery, production, refining, and distribution is maintained.  In this talk the optimistic view and its supporting evidence is presented, starting with the October, 2009, Scientific American article by Leonardo Maugeri, vice-president of the Italian oil firm, Eni.  It is recognized that the boom-and-bust nature of the oil industry will unfortunately continue, with rapid fluctuations in the price and availability of oil, but the present price is high enough to encourage the necessary investments, from an economic point of view. A valid concern relative to the optimistic view is that those countries with the great majority of the oil reserves have nationalized their oil companies and may choose not to make the capital investments necessary to maintain production, even if it is economically rational to do so.

Click on this link for a download of  Dr.Hart's talk.

Mr. Bill Reinhardt, Peak Oil Updated

Bill Reinhardt appeared as the reincarnated M. K. Hubbert, the oil geologist who in 1956 predicted the US oil production would in 1970 and decline thereafter.  This prediction came true, although the decline has been somewhat slower than the 1956 prediction.  Hubbert also predicted a peak in world wide oil production.  The timing of this peak is later than Hubbertoil production predicted, but it may have already arrived, as indicated by fact that world oil production has not increased in the last three years.  (See the figure to the right).  Dr. Hubbert (aka Bill Reinhardt) explained the rationale for the peak and argued that recent estimates of large amounts of the remaining producible oil do not account for the large technical difficulties associated with oil sands shale and tertiary oil recovery and also for the rapid fall off in production for very deep wells.  In Dr. Hubbert’s view, given the current modest level of investment in oil resource development and the falling rate of discovery per dollar invested, we will be lucky to maintain the current plateau for a few more years before sliding down the other side of the Hubbert curve.

Click on this link for a download of  Mr. Reinhardt's talk.

 This program is co-sponsored by CREF (Capital Region Energy Forum), St. Rose College, and CEG (Center for Economic Growth).

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